The biggest overall trend for 2015 has been the awakening of the listing inventory.  Across most all markets and price ranges inventories have risen over 2014. While still low by historical standards, increased inventory is bringing some relief to buyers frustrated by so few choices in the market. So far this year has had more home sales than 2014, and July heightened that trend with inventories that were at or above last year, giving buyers more choice, while sellers are feeling that the market is slower, even though it is not.  In both June and July, sales increased quite a bit as a result of buyers jumping in, anticipating a future interest rate increase, as well as reacting to a larger For Sale inventory.  August activity, although still strong, has slowed a bit, possibly as a result of what would have been August business being pulled into June and July.

We track the number of visitors to our web sites as a way of anticipating future buyer demand. As the chart below shows, activity is equal to last year with a continuing upward trend, confirming that there is still strong buyer interest.  

Home values continue to rise, but slowing from the crazy levels of 2013/14. Although not as geographically targeted, Case-Shiller tends to have the best data on true appreciation rates. The chart below shows the year over year value changes for SE Michigan, demonstrating that appreciation is still healthy in the 5% range and also reflecting what we are seeing in each individual county and sub-market.

Going into the fall, sellers will need to be aware that with inventories rising, home values will not move as much, and in those markets where inventories jumped quite a bit (mainly in the higher priced segments) values may decline for a short period of time until supply and demand balance again. A recent survey of home sellers showed that they have become more optimistic about the value of their home.  The graphic below compares the seller’s opinion of value to their actual appraisal. Up until March of this year, the sellers guess was less than their appraised value, but since March they have become more optimistic, with that optimism increasing each month. That combination of increasing value optimism by the sellers and an increasing For-Sale inventory is likely to cause many properties to be overpriced this fall and winter.

In July our Company-wide sales jumped as well with all the activity to beat the interest rate increases, continuing our record pace for 2015 and giving us some great momentum into the fall.